September 2026 Visa Bulletin Predictions: EB-2 NIW ROW, India, and Family-Based Green Card
by Hasan Alaz, Esq., Founding Attorney
September 2026 Visa Bulletin Predictions: What to Expect as the Fiscal Year Ends
As we approach the final month of the U.S. government's fiscal year, the September 2026 Visa Bulletin is arguably the most highly anticipated and scrutinized bulletin of the year. Because the fiscal year ends on September 30, the Department of State (DOS) must ensure that all available immigrant visas for Fiscal Year (FY) 2026 are allocated without exceeding the annual statutory limits.
Historically, the September Visa Bulletin brings significant volatility. We often see sharp retrogressions, categories becoming entirely "Unavailable," or last-minute forward movement to capture unused family-sponsored spillover numbers. Based on recent trends from the June and July 2026 Visa Bulletins, as well as explicit warnings from the State Department, here are our comprehensive predictions for the September 2026 Visa Bulletin, focusing heavily on EB-2 NIW (National Interest Waiver) and Family-Based Green Card categories.
EB-2 NIW Predictions: ROW, India, and China
The Employment-Based Second Preference (EB-2) category, which includes the highly sought-after National Interest Waiver (NIW), has faced immense pressure throughout FY 2026.
Rest of World (ROW)
For most of early 2026, EB-2 ROW enjoyed relatively favorable Final Action Dates, even becoming "Current" in the April 2026 Visa Bulletin. However, as the fiscal year draws to a close, demand typically outpaces the remaining visa supply.
Prediction for September 2026: We predict that EB-2 ROW will likely experience retrogression or, at best, remain stagnant. The State Department has repeatedly warned of high visa issuance rates. If the annual cap is reached early, it is entirely possible that EB-2 ROW could be marked "Unavailable" for September, meaning no new green cards can be approved until the new fiscal year begins in October 2026.
India
Indian nationals in the EB-2 category faced a devastating blow in the June 2026 Visa Bulletin, where the Final Action Date retrogressed by more than 10 months to September 1, 2013. The State Department explicitly warned that further retrogressions could be necessary before the fiscal year ends.
Prediction for September 2026: EB-2 India is expected to remain severely backlogged. We predict the Final Action Date will either hold steady at the retrogressed date of September 1, 2013, or face further minor retrogression. Applicants should not expect any forward movement until the FY 2027 visa numbers replenish the supply in October 2026.
China
China EB-2 has hovered around late 2021 throughout the summer of 2026.
Prediction for September 2026: Similar to India, the State Department flagged EB-2 China as a category facing mounting pressure. We anticipate a slight retrogression or no movement, keeping the Final Action Date anchored around mid-to-late 2021.
Family-Based Green Card Predictions
Family-sponsored preference categories have seen slow but steady movement in 2026. Because these categories are less susceptible to the sudden demand spikes seen in employment-based immigration, their movement is generally more predictable, though backlogs remain decades-long for certain countries.
F2A (Spouses and Unmarried Children of Permanent Residents)
The F2A category has been a focal point for many families. After significant backlogs in recent years, 2026 saw incremental forward movement.
Prediction for September 2026: We predict F2A will advance slightly by 2 to 4 weeks for most countries. However, for Mexico, movement may be slower, likely advancing by only 1 to 2 weeks.
F1, F2B, F3, and F4 Categories
The remaining family preference categories are expected to follow their historical pattern of sluggish, incremental advancement.
- F1 (Unmarried Adult Children of U.S. Citizens): Expected to advance by 2 to 4 weeks for Rest of World.
- F2B (Unmarried Adult Children of LPRs): Expected to advance by 2 to 3 weeks for most countries.
- F3 (Married Children of U.S. Citizens): This category traditionally moves the slowest. We predict little to no movement (0 to 2 weeks) across the board.
- F4 (Siblings of U.S. Citizens): Expected to advance by 2 to 4 weeks for Rest of World, though India and Mexico will likely see little to no forward movement due to extreme oversubscription.
Looking Ahead: The October 2026 Visa Bulletin Reset
If the September 2026 Visa Bulletin brings bad news—such as severe retrogression or categories becoming "Unavailable"—applicants should not panic.
October 1, 2026, marks the beginning of Fiscal Year 2027. On this date, the annual quota of 140,000 employment-based visas and 226,000 family-sponsored visas is completely reset. Historically, the October Visa Bulletin brings substantial forward movement and the reopening of any categories that were closed in September.
Furthermore, any unused family-sponsored visa numbers from FY 2026 will "spill over" into the employment-based categories for FY 2027. This spillover is critical for advancing heavily backlogged categories like EB-2 India and EB-3 China.
Strategic Advice for Green Card Applicants
- File Your I-485 Immediately: If your Priority Date is current in the current month's Visa Bulletin, do not wait. File your Form I-485 (Adjustment of Status) immediately before the September retrogression hits. Once filed, you are protected from age-outs under the Child Status Protection Act (CSPA) and can apply for an Employment Authorization Document (EAD) and Advance Parole (AP).
- Prepare for Mandatory Interviews: If your priority date is current and your I-485 is pending, be aware that USCIS has reinstated mandatory in-person interviews for nearly all green card applicants in 2026. Prepare thoroughly with your immigration attorney.
- Monitor the Dates for Filing Chart: Even if the Final Action Dates retrogress, USCIS may still allow applicants to file their I-485 applications based on the more generous "Dates for Filing" chart. Always check the USCIS website a few days after the Visa Bulletin is released to see which chart they are honoring.
Disclaimer: Visa Bulletin predictions are estimates based on historical data, recent State Department trends, and current immigration policy. They are not guarantees of future movement and should not be construed as legal advice.