October 2026 Visa Bulletin Predictions: EB-2 NIW, EB-1, and Family-Based Green Card Projections

October 2026 Visa Bulletin Predictions: What to Expect for FY2027

As the U.S. government’s fiscal year draws to a close in September, immigration applicants eagerly anticipate the release of the October Visa Bulletin. October marks the beginning of the new fiscal year (FY2027), which means a fresh allocation of approximately 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas and 226,000 family-sponsored immigrant visas becomes available.

For applicants who have endured the severe retrogressions seen in the summer of 2026—particularly those from India and China in the EB-1 and EB-2 categories—the October 2026 Visa Bulletin is expected to bring significant relief and forward movement.

In this comprehensive guide, we provide our expert predictions for the October 2026 Visa Bulletin, analyzing the expected trends for Employment-Based (EB) and Family-Based (FB) green card categories.

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The summer months of FY2026 saw dramatic retrogressions, particularly in the June 2026 Visa Bulletin, where the Department of State was forced to hold back priority dates to keep visa issuance within the annual limits. With the FY2027 reset in October, we anticipate a substantial recovery.

EB-1 (Priority Workers) Predictions

The EB-1 category experienced retrogression for India in June 2026, falling back to December 2022.

• EB-1 India: We predict a strong forward movement in October 2026. The Final Action Date is expected to advance significantly, likely recovering to late 2023 or early 2024 as the new fiscal year numbers are released.
• EB-1 China: Expected to remain relatively stable or see modest advancement from its current April 2023 date.
• EB-1 Rest of World (ROW), Mexico, and Philippines: We predict these categories will remain Current (C).

EB-2 and EB-2 NIW (National Interest Waiver) Predictions

The EB-2 category, which includes the highly sought-after National Interest Waiver (NIW), faced massive retrogression for India in the summer of 2026, dropping back over 10 months to September 2013.

• EB-2 India: With the October reset, we expect a meaningful recovery. The Final Action Date should bounce back from the severe summer retrogression, likely advancing toward mid-to-late 2014. However, due to high ongoing demand, it is unlikely to fully catch up to early 2026 levels immediately.
• EB-2 China: After warnings of retrogression in the summer, October should bring a stabilization and potential advancement into late 2021 or early 2022.
• EB-2 Rest of World (ROW), Mexico, and Philippines: We anticipate these categories will remain Current (C) or, at worst, see a very recent cutoff date if demand spikes unexpectedly.

EB-3 (Skilled Workers and Professionals) Predictions

The EB-3 category has seen slow but steady incremental movement for India and China, while ROW has been constrained.

• EB-3 India: We predict continued slow forward movement. As EB-2 India recovers, the gap between EB-2 and EB-3 will dictate whether applicants consider "downgrading" their petitions.
• EB-3 China: Modest advancement is expected, likely pushing further into late 2021.
• EB-3 ROW & Mexico: Expected to see forward movement from the June 2024 date, potentially advancing into late 2024 or early 2025.

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Unlike the employment-based categories, the family-sponsored preferences generally experience more consistent, albeit slow, movement. The FY2027 reset will provide a new batch of 226,000 visas, which should sustain the forward momentum seen in the Dates for Filing charts earlier in the year.

F-1 (Unmarried Sons and Daughters of U.S. Citizens)

• Prediction: We expect the Final Action Dates for ROW, China, and India to advance steadily into late 2017 or early 2018. Mexico may see continued notable advancement following its strong movement in the summer.

F-2A (Spouses and Children of Permanent Residents)

The F-2A category saw a major leap of 5 months in the June 2026 bulletin.

• Prediction: We anticipate that F-2A will continue to advance strongly. The Final Action Date for ROW, China, and India is predicted to move further into 2025. The Dates for Filing chart is expected to remain Current (C) for all chargeability areas, providing an excellent opportunity for applicants inside the U.S. to file their I-485 Adjustment of Status applications.

F-2B (Unmarried Sons and Daughters of Permanent Residents)

• Prediction: Expect moderate advancement of 1 to 3 months across ROW, China, and India, pushing the Final Action Date further into late 2017 or early 2018.

F-3 (Married Sons and Daughters of U.S. Citizens)

• Prediction: This category traditionally moves very slowly. We predict an advancement of 2 to 4 weeks for ROW, China, and India.

F-4 (Brothers and Sisters of Adult U.S. Citizens)

• Prediction: Following slight advancements in the summer, the October bulletin should bring another 1 to 2 months of forward movement for ROW and China, while India may see slightly slower progress due to high historical demand.

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One of the most critical factors influencing the October Visa Bulletin is the concept of "spillover." Under U.S. immigration law, unused family-sponsored visas from the previous fiscal year "spill over" into the employment-based categories for the next fiscal year.

Given the ongoing processing capacities at U.S. consulates worldwide, experts suggest there could be a notable number of unused family-based visas from FY2026. If this occurs, it could result in thousands of additional employment-based visas for FY2027, which would heavily benefit backlogged categories like EB-2 NIW and EB-3 for India and China.

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The release of the October Visa Bulletin (typically published in mid-September) can open narrow windows of opportunity for filing an I-485 Adjustment of Status application. To ensure you are ready:

1. Gather Your Documents: If your priority date is close to becoming current, begin assembling your civil documents, medical exams (Form I-693), and financial evidence now.
2. Monitor the Dates for Filing Chart: In October, USCIS almost always allows employment-based applicants to use the "Dates for Filing" chart, which is typically months or even years ahead of the "Final Action Dates" chart.
3. Consult an Attorney: If you are considering an EB-2 to EB-3 downgrade, or if you need to file an interfiling request, professional legal strategy is essential.

Secure Your Green Card with Alaz Law

Visa Bulletin movements can be unpredictable, but being prepared is the best strategy. At Alaz Law, our experienced immigration attorneys closely monitor these trends to provide our clients with proactive, strategic advice.

Whether you are navigating the complexities of an EB-2 NIW self-petition or bringing a family member to the United States, we are here to guide you every step of the way.

Contact us today to schedule a consultation and ensure your immigration strategy is ready for FY2027.